How Hip and Whole-Body Bone Mineral Density Predict Hip Fracture in Elderly Women: The EPIDOS Prospective Study

We conducted a population-based cohort study in 7598 white healthy women, aged 75 years and over, recruited from the voting lists. We measured at baseline bone mineral density (BMD g/cm2) of the proximal femur (neck, trochanter and Ward's triangle) and the whole body, as well as fat and lean body mass, by dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA). One hundred and fifty-four women underwent a hip fracture during an average 2 years follow-up. Each standard deviation decrease in BMD increased the risk of hip fracture adjusted for age, weight and centre by 1.9 (95% CL 1.5, 2.3) for the femoral neck, 2.6 times (2.0, 3.3) for the trochanter, 1.8 times (1.4, 2.2) for Ward's triangle, 1.6 times (1.2, 2.0) for the whole body, and 1.3 times (1.0, 1.5) for the fat mass. The areas under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves were not significantly different between trochanter and femoral neck BMD, whereas ROC curves of femoral neck and trochanter BMD were significantly better than those for Ward's triangle and whole-body BMD.