Modelling the Incursion and Spread of a Forestry Pest: Case Study of Monochamus alternatus Hope (Coleoptera: Cerambycidae) in Victoria

Effective and efficient systems for surveillance, eradication, containment and management of biosecurity threats require methods to predict the establishment, population growth and spread of organisms that pose a potential biosecurity risk. To support Victorian forest biosecurity operations, Agriculture Victoria has developed a landscape-scale, spatially explicit, spatio-temporal population growth and dispersal model of a generic pest pine beetle. The model can be used to simulate the incursion of a forestry pest from a nominated location(s), such as an importation business site (approved arrangement, AA), into the surrounding environment. The model provides both illustrative and quantitative data on population dynamics and spread of a forestry pest species. Flexibility built into the model design enables a range of spatial extents to be modelled, from user-defined study areas to the Victoria-wide area. The spatial resolution of the model (size of grid cells) can be altered from 100 m to greater than 1 km. The model allows core parameters to be altered by the user, enabling the spread of a variety of windborne insect species and pathogens to be investigated. We verified the model and its parameters by simulating and comparing the outputs with the 1999/2000 Melbourne incursion, but no establishment of a forestry pest beetle was believed to be Monochamus alternatus Hope (Coleoptera: Cerambycidae). The model accurately predicts the distance and direction of the historic incursion, and the subsequent failure to establish is due to low overall population density of the pest species.