Assessment of Sustainable Development based on Prediction Ecological Footprint

The fluctuant cycles of China per capita ecological footprint and biocapacity from 1961 to 2001 is decomposed and picked-up based on empirical mode decomposition (EMD) method. Nonlinear dynamic prediction models are presented with the cycles. The results show that:1) Over last 40 years, the obvious undulation cycle of China per capita ecological footprint (EF) growth is 3.5 years and 8 years. Per capita BC growth is 2.7 years, 28 years and 40 years. 2) The business-as-usual scenario looks at the consequences that China EF would be 1.710gha/cap in 2015, 2.034gha/cap in 2025 if the annual change rate of it would be constant. China biocapacity (BC) would be 0.851gha/cap in 2015, 0.806gha/cap in 2025. China ecological deficit (ED) would be 0.859gha/cap in 2015, 1.224gha/cap in 2025.