Epidemiology of Kawasaki Disease: Prevalence from National Database and Future Trends Projection by System Dynamics Modeling

Objective To update the epidemiologic trend in Kawasaki disease (KD) and develop models for projection. Study design From our national databases 2000-2010 and previous studies, we obtained the epidemiologic data to develop and validate system dynamics models. Population model incorporated birth rate and mortality. KD model incorporated the population at risk, incidence, and risk of coronary complications. Results The average annual incidence in age group Conclusion Simulations on our system dynamics models tailored to any epidemiologic and outcome variables and any changes with medical advance can dynamically project the futures.