Simulation of Policy Tools’ Effects on Farmers’ Adoption of Conservation Tillage Technology: An Empirical Analysis in China

Conservation tillage technology (CTT) provides a new solution to the problem of cultivated land protection. Using effective policy tools to ensure that farmers adopt conservation tillage technology is crucial to the sustainable utilization of cultivated land resources and the development of agricultural modernization. This study aims to explore the decision-making and the dynamic influence mechanism involved in using policy tools to influence farmers’ technology adoption behaviors by constructing a theoretical framework. Based on survey data of farmers in Liaoning Province, China, the Agent Belief–Desire–Intention (BDI) model is applied. The results show that the implementation of policy tools promotes farmers’ adoption of CTT, but different types of policy tools have different impacts on the decision-making behavior of farmers; a change in the intensity of the policy tools will also cause differences in farmers’ behavioral responses. In addition, policy tools must be implemented in a timely manner, as the number of farmers adopting CTT reaches the maximum within 2–3 years. Based on the above research results, in order to effectively promote farmers’ adoption of CTT, the government should pay attention to the role of information-inducing policy and set flexible policy subsidies and punishment standards.