Estimating the prediction uncertainty of biological models

Parameter uncertainty is a prevalent aspect of systems biology modeling. It is therefore important to understand how this aspect relates to one of the most important properties of any model, namely predictive power. When a model is calibrated under normal circumstances, some parameters are insensitive and therefore uncertain. When the model is applied to predict dynamics under different circumstances, e.g., after a mutation or adding a chemical, these uncertainties might cause large uncertainties in the predicted dynamics.