Maximum Likelihood Estimation of Parameters for Advanced Continuously Reinforced Concrete Pavement (CRCP) Punchout Calibration Model

Pavement performance prediction is the essential part of the pavement design, which is very important for highway agencies for the purpose of budget allocating. This study introduces a model of local calibration for punchout, which is the major structural distress of continuously reinforced concrete pavement (CRCP). It is assumed that the number of equivalent single axle loads’ (ESALs) leads to punchout follows a Weibull distribution. The parameters of Weibull distribution were estimated by maximum likelihood estimation (MLE). Additionally, an approach of estimating the initial value of the parameters was also presented before applying the Newton method for solving the likelihood equations. The regression result was found to fit the performance-monitoring data from LTPP very well. The proposed calibration model is capable of describing the punchout and can be employed to predict the failure rate and reliability of CRCP in the pavement design and the arrangement of rehabilitation activities.