都市内新規人工林における成長量の指数分布近似モデルによる稚樹のサイズ分布の動態シミュレーション(平成17年度日本造園学会全国大会研究発表論文集(23))

The population dynamics of saplings taller than 50cm were investigated from 1998 to 2003 in every year in the whole 6048m² area of the restored natural habitat Inochi-No-Mori in Kyoto city. There were 1249 saplings in the area in 2003. Population density was 32.2 individuals / 100m². Celtis sinensis formed 32.3% of the total number of individuals and was dominant species of Inochi-No-Mori. Only 126 saplings had been dead from 1998 to 2003 , so mortality rate was very low. We examined the height growth characteristic of saplings. As a result, there were size dependencies on the height growth of saplings. So we approximated the height distributions of saplings by exponential functions. By using this model, simulation about the height growth of each sapling was conducted in assuming that mortality rate and number of recruitment individuals was constant. We got the calculated size distributions from 1999 to 2003 and compared the calculated size distributions with the observed ones. As a result, differences between the observed size distributions and the calculated ones were very slight. This model predicted that the frequency of saplings taller than 500cm would be highest in 2015. The simulation was very valid for predication dynamics of saplings.