The Nile perch invasion in Lake Victoria: cause or consequence of the haplochromine decline?

We review alternative hypotheses and associated mechanisms to explain Lake Victoria’s Nile perch (Lates niloticus) takeover and concurrent reduction in haplochromines through a (re)analysis of long-term climate, limnological, and stock observations in comparison with size-spectrum model predictions of co-existence, extinction, and demographic change. The empirical observations are in agreement with the outcomes of the model containing two interacting species with life histories matching Nile perch and a generalized haplochromine. The dynamic interactions may have depended on size-related differences in early juvenile mortality: mouth-brooding haplochromines escape predation mortality in early life stages, unlike Nile perch, which have miniscule planktonic eggs and larvae. In our model, predation on the latter by planktivorous haplochromine fry acts as a stabilizing factor for co-existence, but external mortality on the haplochromines would disrupt this balance in favor of Nile perch. To explain the observ...