Fine-scale spatial patterns of wildlife disease are common and understudied

Abstract All pathogens are heterogeneous in space, yet little is known about the prevalence and scale of this spatial variation, particularly in wild animal systems. To address this question, we conducted a broad literature search to identify datasets involving diseases of wild mammals in spatially distributed contexts. Across 31 such final datasets featuring 89 replicates and 71 host-parasite combinations, only 51% had previously been used to test spatial hypotheses. We analysed these datasets for spatial dependence within a standardised modelling framework using Bayesian linear models. We detected spatial autocorrelation in 44/89 model replicates (54%) across 21/31 datasets (68%), spread across parasites of all groups and transmission modes. Surprisingly, although larger sampling areas more easily detected spatial patterns, even some very small study areas (under 0.01km2) exhibited substantial spatial heterogeneity. Parasites of all transmission modes had easily detectable spatial patterns, implying that structured contact networks and susceptibility effects are likely as important in spatially structuring disease as are environmental drivers of transmission efficiency. Our findings imply that fine-scale spatial patterns of infection often manifest in wild animal systems, whether or not the aim of the study is to examine environmentally varying processes. Given the widespread nature of these findings, studies should more frequently record and analyse spatial data, facilitating development and testing of spatial hypotheses in disease ecology.