Trading Health Risks for Glory: A Reformulation of the Goldman Dilemma

Background The Goldman dilemma presented athletes with a Faustian bargain that guaranteed winning an Olympic gold medal in their sport but resulted in certain death 5 years later. Athletes’ responses to Goldman’s bargain were reported from 1982 to 1995. Several studies subsequently evaluated people’s willingness to accept the bargain proposed in the Goldman question. Our study updates Goldman’s question using contingent-behavior questions, a preference-elicitation method widely applied in economics, marketing and psychology to understand people’s choice behavior. Contingent-behavior questions ask people to evaluate hypothetical tradeoffs between outcomes when real-world decisions are unobservable, nonexistent, or unreliable.