The United states and GUAM: from tactic to partnership

156 T So, in 2005-2006, against the deterioration in relations between Russia and several CIS states, the West (particularly the U.S. and the “New” European countries) rendered significant support to the integration unions that are alternatives to the Commonwealth in the post-Soviet expanse. Thanks to the rivalry among the Central European countries that would like to orchestrate these structures (Rumania, Poland, Lithuania, and Ukraine), in addition to the Organization for Democracy and Economic Development—GUAM, another two unions appeared—the Community of Democratic Choice and the Black Sea Forum for Dialog and Partnership. These formations have essentially identical goals and almost the same member states. Their main functions, in our view, are to create a “cordon sanitaire” along the border with Russia, as well as draw the Central Asian countries (primarily Kazakhstan) onto their side. Activation of the integration trends created without Russia’s participation in the CIS expanse does not mean that the Commonwealth is about to collapse. Moldova and Ukraine are unlikely to withdraw from the CIS in the near future, particularly since Russian-Moldovan relations have essentially normalized and the political crisis in Ukraine has forced Kiev to turn to its own problems and distracted it from its senseless standoff with Moscow. Ukraine has obviously weighed up the pros and cons of its withdrawal from CIS, but it is not ready to take the risk and deal such a crushing blow to its own economy at the moment. All the same, under certain circumstances, the country might return to a discussion of these issues (continuation and aggravation of the gas wars with Russia, Moscow’s acutely negative reaction and retaliatory measures in the event Ukraine is invited to joint NATO, and aggravation of the situation in the Crimea). It is obvious that Ukraine’s overseas patrons are not excluding the possibility of its withdrawal from the CIS along with Kiev’s entry into NATO either. Georgia is the closest to withdrawing from the CIS, but its willingness was quickly undermined by Russia’s abrupt steps, which gave it to understand that Moscow may reconsider its position regarding the republic’s territorial integrity. Moreover, Georgia is not risking withdrawal from the CIS alone and will continue to urge Ukraine and possibly Moldova to make a similar decision in the future. Nevertheless, Georgia’s role in the CIS is definitely disruptive.