ANALISIS KEJUTAN FAKTOR PENARIK DAN PENDORONG TERHADAP ALIRAN PORTOFOLIO MASUK KE INDONESIA, 2000:Q1 â 2012:Q4

Post global economic crisis period, Indonesia as one of the emerging markets countries has received a lot of capital inflows. The increase of this flows can stimulate economic activity but it also causes macroeconomic fluctuations. This study analyzes the determinants of portfolio inflows to Indonesia within push and pull factors framework, using structural cointegrated vector autoregressive, impulse responses function and variance decomposition methods. The result of the impulse responses function shows that the portfolio inflows in the form of bond give positive response to the unexpected changes of budget deficit and domestic output growth, while the portfolio inflows in the form of stocks give positive response to the unexpected changes of foreign output growth, domestic output growth, stock price index and budget deficit. The result of variance decomposition analysis shows that the pull factors, the domestic interest rate and current account balance are the main factors that explain the variation of portfolio inflows in the form of bonds, whereas the domestic interest rate and stock price index are the most dominant variables that explain the variation of portfolio inflows in the form of stocks.