Use of machine learning methods in prediction of short-term outcome in autism spectrum disorders

ABSTRACTOBJECTIVE: Studies show partial improvements in some core symptoms of Autism Spectrum Disorders (ASD) in time. However, the predictive factors (e.g. pretreatment IQ, comorbid psychiatric disorders, adaptive, and language skills, etc.) for a better the outcome was not studied with machine learning methods. We aimed to examine the predictors of outcome with machine learning methods, which are novel computational methods including statistical estimation, information theories and mathematical learning automatically discovering useful patterns in large amounts of data.METHOD: The study the group comprised 433 children (mean age: 72.3 ± 45.9 months) with ASD diagnosis. The ASD symptoms were assessed by the Autism Behavior Checklist, Aberrant Behavior Checklist, Clinical Global Impression scales at baseline (T0) and 12th (T1), 24th (T2), and 36th (T3) months. We tested the performance of for machine learning algorithms (Naive Bayes, Generalized Linear Model, Logistic Regression, Decision Tree) on our dat...