Hurricanes that affected Ciego de Ávila and their return periods. Period 1851 to 2017

Obtaining an update of the chronology of the hurricanes that have affected the province of Ciego de Avila and its return periods are the main objectives of this work, which includes the description of its statistical behavior. The updated Hurricane Chronology of Cuba and the Atlantic Hurricane Hurdat2 Data Base (1851-2017) were used as sources of information, as well as other studies carried out in the province in previous years. For the calculation of the return periods, probability laws associated with discrete random variables were used, that is, the Poisson distribution and the tenth of Chi-square adjustment. The detailed analysis indicates that the affectations to the territory are concentrated in September and October, it was obtained that the period of return for the affectation of a hurricane of any category is every 7.47 years and to be affected by an intense hurricane is 28,34 years. These results are very useful in the evaluation of risks and vulnerability of different populations and economic objectives of our province and will serve for a better understanding of hurricanes and their impact in a new stage of high cyclonic activity, taking into account the impact of the hurricane Irma, the only category 5 hurricane in the history of the province