Analytical Modeling of Computer Attacks on Intelligent Transport Systems Based on the Transformation of Stochastic Networks

The paper discusses an approach to constructing analytical models of computer attacks affecting intelligent transport systems, based on the transformation of stochastic networks. The approach is distinguished by high accuracy and stability of the decisions made and has proven itself well in modeling multi-stage stochastic processes of various natures. The modeling result is the distribution function of time and the average time of the implementation of computer attacks. These scores are then used to determine cyber-resilience metrics. Also, analytical models of countermeasures have been developed, which are integrated with models of computer attacks. As a result, an integrated analytical model of the behavior of an intelligent transport system in the context of cyber attacks was formed. It allows us to evaluate and select the most effective countermeasures.