Assessing drivers and deterrents of deforestation in Mexico through a public policy tool. The adequacy of the index of economic pressure for deforestation

Abstract The public forest policy's response to the threat of deforestation in Mexico has relied on different environmental tools for forest management, conservation, and survival. The present study compares the updated version of the Index of Economic Pressure for Deforestation (IRDef, in Spanish), one of the most commonly used public policy tools, to an alternative version this index incorporating a modification of the measurement of accessibility (MIRDef, in Spanish). It also evaluates the accuracy of the deforestation risk estimates obtained with both the IRDef and the MIRDef by comparing them to actual deforestation that occurred, based on open data on forests and tropical forests in Mexico (obtained from Global Forest Watch). Logistic regressions and geographic information systems were used to model both indices. The modified index (MIRDef) was more sensitive to actual deforestation than the updated version of the index (IRDef), although neither of the indices' expected distributions of high and very high risk categories, agreed with the actual deforestation that occurred. The results of this analysis provide information that contributes to the important discussion about the drivers and deterrents of deforestation in Mexico along with strategies to strengthen the federal public policy tool.