Risk assessment of butyltins based on a fugacity-based food web bioaccumulation model in the Jincheng Bay mariculture area: II. Risk assessment

A fugacity-based food web bioaccumulation model was constructed, and the biotic concentrations of butyltins in the food web of the Jincheng Bay mariculture area were estimated accordingly, using the water and sediment concentrations described in the accompanying paper (Part I). This paper presents an ecological risk assessment (ERA) and a human health risk assessment (HHRA) of the butyltins, based on the estimated tissue residues in the marine life in this area. The results showed that the ecological risk probability was greater than 0.05. At this level, management control is critical since sensitive marine species would be profoundly endangered by butyltin contamination. Few if any detrimental effects, however, would be generated for humans from exposure to butyltins through seafood consumption. The fugacity-based model can refine the ERA and HHRA of pollutants in marine areas, provide a basis for protecting marine ecology and the security of fishery products, and thus help determine the feasibility of a proposed aquaculture project.