Bayesian Reliability Analysis for Maintaining Integrity of Aircraft Structures. (1st Report). Evaluation of Proper Inspection Interval.

The purpose of this study is to establish the method for decisions on proper inspection intervals needed to maintain reliability of aircraft structures using the parameter values estimated from inspection results in service by Bayesian theorem. Attention is focused on only fatigue damage in this study, and inference is made for uncertain factors related to the probability of detection and initiation of cracks. It is demonstrated that the reliability is possibly kept above a predetermined level, by updating inspection schedule according to the already performed inspections. Applying the model to the economical consideration for maintenance procedures, a preliminary study is attempted to evaluate the effect of nonrepaired crack length. Numerical examples are carried out to demonstrate the application of the present analysis.