The SPIRITS sample of Luminous Infrared Transients: Uncovering Hidden Supernovae and Dusty Stellar Outbursts in Nearby Galaxies.

We present a systematic study of the most luminous ($M_{\mathrm{IR}}$ [Vega magnitudes] brighter than $-14$) infrared (IR) transients discovered by the SPitzer InfraRed Intensive Transients Survey (SPIRITS) between 2014-2018 in nearby galaxies ($D 12$) show multiple, luminous IR outbursts over several years and have directly detected, massive progenitors in archival imaging. With analyses of extensive, multi-wavelength follow-up, we infer the following likely classifications: 5 obscured core-collapse supernovae (CCSNe), 2 erupting massive stars, 1 massive stellar merger, and 1 possible electron capture SN. We define a control sample of all optically discovered transients recovered in SPIRITS galaxies and satisfying the same selection criteria. The control sample consists of 8 CCSNe and 1 Type Iax SN. We find that 7 of the 13 CCSNe in the SPIRITS sample have lower bounds on extinction of $2 < A_V < 8$, suggesting that a large population of CCSNe is heavily obscured. We estimate a nominal fraction of CCSNe in nearby galaxies that are missed by optical surveys of $38.5^{+26.0}_{-21.9}$% (90% confidence). This may resolve long-standing discrepancies between measurements of the CCSN rate and the cosmic star-formation rate.