Drought Analysis Based on SPI and SAD Curve for the Korean Peninsula Considering Climate Change

In recent years, Korea has been experiencing serious drought and water scarcity problems. Korea is classified as a water-deficient country by the United Nations(UN). These problems are further compounded by the rapidly growing population, especially in the urban areas. Attaining water security is one of the major concerns and top priorities of the Korean government. Further complicating these issues is the global climate change, which is currently at the forefront of scientific research. With the projected global temperature increase due to increases in greenhouse gas emissions, scientists generally agree that the global hydrological cycle will intensify and suggest that extremes (e.g. droughts, floods) will become more common. Therefore, one major concern arising from climate change is its potential effects on water resources in terms of (increases in) droughts, and its impacts on different health, environmental, economic, and social sectors. Changes in the frequency and magnitude of droughts will have enormous impacts on water management, agriculture, and aquatic ecosystems. According to Korea Water Resource Association (KWRA), material damage recorded was 522 million USD in 1967, 584 million USD in 1968, 216 million USD in 1981, and 287 million USD in 1982 (http://kwra.or.kr/news/en_04.html). Researches on drought have, however, lagged behind in terms of quality and quantity. This paper addresses the assessment of the drought characteristics in the Korean Peninsula considering climate change. Researches on temporal and spatial characteristics of drought are necessary to evaluate potential impact of drought and to carry out rational management of water resources. The most common method for interpreting drought relies on the drought index, which considers the impacts of drought severity, frequency, its affecting area, and duration. It is because the drought index explains the current drought situation by meteorological factors such as precipitation and past meteorological conditions close to that of the present.