Rear-end collision real-time prediction method aimed at frequently jammed section of expressway

The invention discloses a rear-end collision real-time prediction method aimed at a frequently jammed section of an expressway. Firstly, a traffic flow detector used for collecting real-time traffic flow data of all sections of the expressway is installed on the expressway (generally the upstream section of a bottleneck area). When a rear-end collision occurs, vehicle following running tracks are analyzed, a rear-end collision risk real-time prediction logistic model of the frequently jammed section of the expressway is built, and model parameters are calibrated according to traffic flow data by five minutes before the collision occurs. The method overcomes the defect that effective real-time prediction of the rear-end collision of frequently jammed section of the expressway cannot be conducted in the past, rear-end collision risks can be estimated in real time according to the traffic data collected by the traffic flow detector on the expressway, and moreover, dynamic traffic control is utilized to control and prevent the rear-end collision. The method has important time application value and wide application prospects in China.