Analyzing the effects of excess rainfall properties on the scaling structure of peak discharges: Insights from a mesoscale river basin

Key theoretical and empirical results from the past two decades have established that peak discharges resulting from a single rainfall-runoff event in a nested watershed exhibit a power law, or scaling, relation to drainage area and that the parameters of the power law relation, henceforth referred to as the flood scaling exponent and intercept, change from event to event. To date, only two studies have been conducted using empirical data, both using data from the 21 km2 Goodwin Creek Experimental Watershed that is located in Mississippi, in an effort to uncover the physical processes that control the event-to-event variability of the flood scaling parameters. Our study expands the analysis to the mesoscale Iowa River basin (A = 32,400 km2), which is located in eastern Iowa, and provides additional insights into the physical processes that control the flood scaling parameters. Using 51 rainfall-runoff events that we identified over the 12 year period since 2002, we show how the duration and depth of excess rainfall, which is the portion of rainfall that contributes to direct runoff, control the flood scaling exponent and intercept. Moreover, using a diagnostic simulation study that is guided by evidence found in empirical data, we show that the temporal structure of excess rainfall has a significant effect on the scaling structure of peak discharges. These insights will contribute toward ongoing efforts to provide a framework for flood prediction in ungauged basins.