Bayesian Inference of Other Minds Explains Human Choices in Group Decision Making

Abstract To make decisions in a social context, humans have to predict the behavior of others, an ability that is thought to rely on having a model of other minds known as theory of mind. Such a model becomes especially complex when the number of people one simultaneously interacts is large and the actions are anonymous. Here, we show that in order to make decisions within a large group, humans employ Bayesian inference to model the “mind of the group,” making predictions of others’ decisions while also considering the effects of their own actions on the group as a whole. We present results from a group decision making task known as the Volunteers Dilemma and demonstrate that a Bayesian model based on partially observable Markov decision processes outperforms existing models in quantitatively explaining human behavior. Our results suggest that in group decision making, rather than acting based solely on the rewards received thus far, humans maintain a model of the group and simulate the group’s dynamics into the future in order to choose an action as a member of the group.