The impact of HPV vaccination on future cervical screening: a simulation study of two birth cohorts in Denmark

Objectives To explore the interplay between primary and secondary prevention of cervical cancer by estimating future screening outcomes in women offered human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination when they were sexually naive. Design Estimation of outcome of liquid-based cytology screening for a post-HPV vaccination cohort using pre-vaccination screening data combined with HPV vaccination efficacy data reported in the literature. Setting Denmark. Data The number of screening diagnoses at first screen in a pre-vaccination birth cohort was multiplied by reported risk reductions expected for women who were vaccinated for HPV before sexual debut. All identified studies were reviewed by two authors, and weighted pooled estimates of vaccine efficacies were used. Main outcome measures Proportions of positive and false-positive cervical cytologies and positive predictive value (PPV) were calculated using cervical intraepithelial neoplasia (CIN) grade 2+ and 3+ as cut-off values. Results The proportion of positive screening tests was reduced from 8.7% before vaccination to 6.5% after vaccination, and the proportion of false-positive screening tests using CIN2+ as a cut-off was reduced from 5.5% pre-vaccination to 4.3% post-vaccination, and using CIN3+ as a cut-off from 6.2% to 4.7%. PPVs were reduced from 23% to 19% (cut-off CIN2+), and from 14% to 12% (cut-off CIN3+). Conclusions In our calculations, the proportion of positive screening results with liquid-based cytology will be reduced as a consequence of HPV vaccination, but the reduction is small, and the expected decline in PPV is very limited. In this situation, the information general practitioners will have to provide to their patients will be largely unchanged.