Robustness evaluation of production plans using Monte Carlo simulation

Abstract In order to meet the challenges on the global market and to maximize productivity, production companies need to develop an effective production planning strategy. Production planning is a complex process that underlies a dynamic, fast-paced behavior: influences like machine failure, change of order or absence of employees regularly require an adaptation of the existing production plan. In this paper, we present a methodology that models phenomena influencing the production plan and evaluates their effects on the completion times via a Monte Carlo simulation. Focusing on short-notice incoming orders, the methodology provides statements on the robustness of the production plan by estimating the anticipated change in the completion times under the occurrence of uncertain events.