Determinants of FTTH tariffs evolution in EU: A panel data analysis

Abstract This study aims to reveal a set of important factors related to FTTH tariffs and potentially differentiate them among the different EU countries, when constructing a dataset of 28 EU countries between 2013 and 2018 with tariff data 30–100 Mbps (TR30) and 100+ Mbps (TR100). We find that there is a negative relationship between penetration and tariffs. As penetration increases, that causes a negative effect to tariffs overall that tend to drop. Additionally, competition is also a significant constraint, with the strongest effect in the TR100 case. The highly competitive countries, with less concentrated competition converge to lower tariffs during the study's time period. GDP per capita adds a positive effect to both TR30 and TR100 cases, where the developed EU countries' users tend to express overall a willingness to pay more for the same speed and service. Most importantly, these countries should achieve faster their goals, since the subscribers' willingness to pay for high-speed service combined with competitive markets at the right service offerings in place, will foster the 2020 national broadband plan regarding ultrafast connectivity. TR100 forecasts were generated between 2019 and 2025 for a specific set of countries, where values converge into constant levels since most markets approach a saturation level.