The current distribution, predictive modeling, and restoration potential of red spruce in West Virginia

—The environmental relationships of red spruce (Picea rubens Sarg.) were assessed in east-central West Virginia. Although many significant relationships existed, red spruce was most strongly associated with elevation, climate, and soil moisture factors. Specifically, red spruce was positively associated with elevation, number of frost days, mean annual precipitation, and soil wetness (as expressed by depth to impermeable “fragipan” horizon, depth to water table, and drainage class) and negatively associated with growing degree days and mean annual temperature. A predictive model was built by subjecting the dataset to logistical stepwise regression. Elevation was overwhelmingly the most important predictor of red spruce and explained the majority of variation. A predictive map of red spruce occurrence using a four-factor regression equation (elevation, depth of water table, precipitation, and growing degree days) was created. Opportunities to restore red spruce ecosystems in West Virginia were identified by comparing the actual mapped distribution of red spruce with the predictive model output. Limitations of using current distributional data as input for predictive modeling are discussed. 1 Regional Ecologist (GN) and Remote Sensing Coordinator (DW), U.S. Forest Service, Eastern Region, 626 E. Wisconsin Ave., Milwaukee, WI 53202. Contact GN at gnowacki@fs.fed.us.