A strategy for the robust forecasting of gas turbine health subjected to fouling

Fouling represents a major problem for Gas Turbines (GTs) in both heavy-duty and aero-propulsion applications. Solid particles entering the engine can stick to the internal surfaces and form deposits. Components' lifetime and performance can dramatically vary as a consequence of this phenomenon. These effects impact the whole engine in terms of residual life, operating stability, and maintenance costs. In the High-Pressure Turbine (HPT), in particular, the high temperatures soft the particles and promote their adhesion, especially in the short term. Unfortunately, predicting the GT response to this detrimental issue is still an open problem for scientists. Furthermore, the stochastic variations of the components operating conditions increase the uncertainty of the forecasting results. In this work, a strategy to predict the effects of turbine fouling on the whole engine is proposed. A stationary Gas Path Analysis (GPA) has been performed for this scope to predict the GT health parameters. Their alteration as a consequence of fouling has been evaluated by scaling the turbine map. The scaling factor has been found by performing Computational Fluid Dynamic (CFD) simulations of a HPT nozzle with particle injection. Being its operating conditions strongly uncertain, a stochastic analysis has been conducted. The uncertainty sources considered are the circumferential hot core location and the turbulence level at the inlet. The study enables to build of confidence intervals on the GT health parameters predictions and represents a step forward towards a robust forecasting tool.