Assessment of baseline bone turnover marker levels and response to risedronate treatment: Data from a Japanese phase III trial

Abstract Background Risedronate increases bone mineral density (BMD) and reduces fracture risk, but treatment response may depend on the baseline state of bone turnover. Data regarding the selection of therapeutic drugs or the prediction of therapeutic effects with baseline levels of bone turnover markers (BTMs) as a reference are insufficient. We hypothesized that when the baseline levels of BTMs are higher, baseline BMD might be lower, changes in BMD at 12 months after risedronate treatment might be higher, and the reduction of fracture incidence might be greater. This study aimed to analyze the data of a phase III clinical trial of risedronate from Japan to investigate the relationships between baseline BTM levels and (1) baseline BMD, (2) changes in BMD at 12 months after the start of treatment, and (3) the incidence of new vertebral fractures. Methods This post-hoc analysis included 788 postmenopausal women with osteoporosis whose baseline BTM levels as well as baseline and endpoint BMDs were measured. Relationships between baseline BTM levels and BMD at baseline and 12 months after risedronate treatment and new vertebral fractures were examined. One-way analysis of variance, two-tailed Student's t-test, and Fisher's exact test were used to analyze the data. Results Baseline BMD showed a significant upward trend when baseline BTM levels were lower in the analysis by tertiles. New vertebral fractures tended to occur in patients with prevalent vertebral fractures, but the relationship between new fractures and BTM levels was not statistically significant. Regardless of BTM types, BMD percentage increments (%) and increments (g/cm2) with the 12-month treatment were high when pretreatment BTM levels were high (P  5.0% increase in BMD was observed even if baseline BTM levels were within the normal range. A new vertebral fracture occurred in only six patients (0.77%), and there was not enough statistical power to clarify the relationship between baseline BTM levels and fracture risk reduction. Conclusions When pretreatment BTM levels increased, baseline BMD tended to be lower and the increase in BMD with 12-month risedronate treatment was higher. However, BMD could still be increased even if the baseline BTM levels are within the normal range. Combined with available evidence, baseline BTMs may not have an important role in deciding the optimal therapy. To elucidate the relationship between baseline BTM levels and long-term fracture risk, it will be necessary to conduct more large-scale studies with a longer follow-up period in severe osteoporotic patients with a high fracture risk. Mini abstract We evaluated the significance of baseline bone turnover markers in the response to risedronate treatment. The increase in the bone mineral density (BMD) with the 12-month treatment may be higher when the state of bone turnover at baseline is higher, and BMD could still be increased even if the baseline bone turnover is within the normal range.