Decoupling national water needs for national water supplies: insights and potential for countries in the Jordan Basin

This report analyses and compares the water allocation and management experience of Jordan, Palestine and Israel using the lens of economic and resource decoupling to highlight past trends and future potential for jurisdictions in the region to circumvent limits on natural water resources. Like most Middle East economies, Jordan and Palestine face extreme water scarcity and potential food insecurity. These conditions are increasingly seen as threats to human security and to the natural environment. Israel, which shares a similar geography, has adopted a combination of policy and technological interventions that have allowed it to largely overcome such pressures, become a leader in irrigated agricultural production and enjoy a version of sustainable water and food security. In economic terms, Israel has been able to ‘decouple’ its economic and social water demands from its internal water resource availability. In terms of water productivity, Jordan likewise, has identified agricultural methods by which it achieves regionally unmatched levels of productivity for certain specific crops. The extent to which these good practices — effective allocation and management of water resources, water ecosystem stewardship, and economic, social and environmental decoupling — can be transferred between these countries, as well as to other economies that share similar environmental endowments is the subject of this research. We examine and compare decoupling trends in Jordan, Israel and (within data limitations) Palestine. From this, we gauge the potential scope for decoupling with a view to decreasing pressure on water resources, increasing agricultural water productivity and allowing new and existing water resources to be prioritised for more economically productive uses. The approach begins with a secondary-data analysis of economic and population growth trends, food production, and agricultural water needs. From this, the potential water productivity gains from increased effluent reuse and the adoption of agricultural best practices is calculated, focusing on 14 key crops. Scenario modelling is then used to understand the potential volumetric gains that could be realised through maximised decoupling. Observations from farm-level interviews are used to verify the national assessment at directly comparable local levels, and provide data on different knowledge pathways and concerns within the agricultural communities of Palestine, Jordan and Israel. The analysis suggests that improved agricultural productivity could potentially reduce water consumption by up to 168 Million Cubic Metres (MCM) per year in Jordan (approximately 33 per cent of current agricultural water consumption). Strategic import substitution could add an additional 52.5 MCM/year to the volume of water consumed in agriculture, and a further 140 MCM/year could be mobilised through enhanced effluent reuse. In Palestine, major advances in agricultural water productivity could be realised, particularly in olive, eggplant, tomato and cucumber production, through the adoption of regional best practices, in addition to 115 MCM/year if treated wastewater could be substituted for freshwater. In the light of these findings, we consider what changes in the regulatory framework, water infrastructure and agricultural practice would be required to realise these gains as well as the political, social and institutional barriers that would have to be overcome. We also assess how enhanced decoupling would complement (or disrupt) current and planned initiatives geared towards enhancing Jordan’s water supply. Finally, we evaluate opportunities to promote decoupling in Jordan, including options for enhanced agricultural and livelihoods investment, knowledge sharing and best practice uptake, and improving policy coordination to realise simultaneous advantages in water and agriculture. Analysis for Palestine, although limited due to data constraints, includes an assessment at the crop level of improved water productivity, and farmer knowledge networks. We present our findings in four sections. Section 1 explains and extends the development of water resource decoupling theory. Section 2 sets out water policy and existing decoupling trends in Israel (updated from previous work by Gilmont) and in Jordan, and reviews available data for Palestine. Section 3 quantifies potential gains through enhanced decoupling in Jordan and models the impact of decoupling on future water resource scenarios. Section 4 compares the national assessments set out in Section 3 with farm-level interview data on water productivity, confirming the trends in water productivity for a number of crops, and highlighting crops where further research is necessary. The section also examines the agricultural and political opportunities and challenges to enhanced water resource decoupling in Jordan. To the extent possible, areas of decoupling potential in Palestine are identified and possible savings for selected crops are quantified. Section 5 presents results of scenario modelling for enhanced decoupling in Jordan, and demonstrates how decoupling can contribute to future water security. Section 6 sets out the conclusions and outlines future research and pilot implementation.