Impact of climate change implies the northward shift in distribution of the Irano-Turanian subalpine species complex Acanthophyllum squarrosum

Abstract In this study, we used maximum entropy modeling to predict the climate change effects on the distribution range of a subalpine steppe flora species complex, Acanthophyllum squarrosum (Caryophyllaceae). We used data from four different models, with two representative concentration pathways of climate scenarios in modern time, 2030, 2070 and 2080. Our results showed that A. squarrosum has a suitable habitat in ca. 1 million km² (33% of our study area) and will likely experience a northward shift, gaining new habitat in Azerbaijan, Armenia and North of Afghanistan in the near decades. Maxent model predicts A. squarrosum complex populations from southern Iran to be under treat of extinction, especially at lower altitudes regions and this prediction may concern other subalpine species found in the same region. Among the climatic variables investigated, annual mean temperature, and precipitation of warmest and coldest quarter were those that mostly affected A. squarrosum complex distribution.