Trajectories of and Disparities in HIV Prevalence among Black, White, and Hispanic/Latino Men who Have Sex with Men in 86 Large U.S. Metropolitan Statistical Areas, 1992-2013

The challenges of producing adequate estimates of HIV prevalence among men who have sex with men (MSM) are well known. Among them are accurately estimating MSM population size and obtaining HIV testing data from unbiased samples. Previous research has produced rigorous estimates of HIV prevalence among MSM in specific geographic locations (e.g., large cities with large populations of MSM), or for a broader range of locations, but only over a relatively short period of time (e.g., one year). No one, to our knowledge, has published annual estimates of HIV prevalence among MSM over an extended period of time and across a wide range of geographic areas. This is an important gap in the literature, given that this information is needed to identify multi-level predictors of change over time in HIV prevalence among MSM and to help target resources to high-need areas - a national priority. This paper integrates data from numerous sources: Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's (CDC) National HIV Surveillance System and National HIV Prevention Monitoring and Evaluation data; estimates of 1992 MSM population size and HIV prevalence and incidence among MSM by Holmberg, 1997; and estimates of HIV among MSM from published literature using 1992-2013 data. It applies multilevel modeling to these data to estimate and validate trajectories of HIV prevalence among MSM from 1992-2013 for 86 of the largest metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs) in the United States. Our estimates indicate that, consistently, HIV prevalence among MSM increased during this time period in each MSA, from an across-MSA mean of 11% in 1992 to 20% in 2013 (with slightly smaller increases among MSAs with the initially-largest HIV burden among MSM; S.D. across all years = 3.5%). Our estimates by racial/ethnic subgroups of MSM suggest higher mean HIV prevalence among minority (Black and Hispanic/Latino) MSM than among white MSM across all years and geographic regions. The consistent increases found in HIV prevalence among all MSM are likely primarily attributable to decreases in mortality among HIV-positive MSM, and are likely secondarily attributable to increasing HIV incidence among racial/ethnic minority subpopulations of MSM. Future research is needed to confirm that these are in fact the factors driving the increases in HIV prevalence observed in our estimates. If so, without detracting from HIV prevention efforts targeting MSM, new healthcare initiatives may be needed which focus on targeted HIV prevention efforts among racial/ethnic minority MSM and on training healthcare providers to address cross-cutting health challenges of increased longevity among HIV-positive MSM populations.