Quantifying the effect of noise, vibration and motion on human performance in ship collision and grounding risk assessment

Risk-based design (RBD) methodology for ships is a relatively new and a fast developing discipline. However, quantification of human error contribution to the risk of collision or grounding within RBD has not been considered before. This paper introduces probabilistic models linking the effect of ship motion, vibration and noise with risk through the mediating agent of a crewmember. The models utilize the concept of Attention Management, which combines the theories described by Dynamic Adaptability Model, Cognitive Control Model and Malleable Attentional Resources Theory. To model the risk, an uncertainty-based approach is taken, under which the available background knowledge is systematically translated into a coherent network and the evidential uncertainty is qualitatively assessed. The obtained results are promising as the models are responsive to changes in the GDF nodes as expected. The models may be used as intended by naval architects and vessel designers, to facilitate risk-based ship design.