Построение прогноза возмущенной составляющей напряженности геомагнитного поля при помощи модели АРПСС для мобильных устройств прогнозирования геомагнитных возмущений

The article presents the results of ARIMA models research to apply them for the prediction of geomagnetic disturbances. From the original data highlighted rows containing geomagnetic storms, and the rows contain the data about the quiet geomagnetic field, removed average and linear trends. Graphics autocorrelation and partial autocorrelation functions were estimated. ARIMA modelswere identified and evaluated their options, predictions of geomagnetic activity graphs of the forecasts were constructed. The value of the skill of forecasts was calculated and time series of the residuals for disturbed and undisturbed series were analyzed. According to the results of the conclusions and the applicability of the ARIMAmodel for prediction of geomagnetic disturbancesand the the need to develop a new method of forecasting SMOA in relation to mobile devices prediction of geomagnetic disturbances.