Propagation dynamics model considering the characteristics of 2019-nCoV and prevention-control measurements

Considering the deficiency of existing propagation dynamics models, as well as the transmission characteristics of 2019 novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) and prevention-control measurements, a new infectious disease model is established, which included eight compartments, i e susceptible, uninsulated, isolated, diagnosed, asymptomatic, cured after diagnosis, cured after asymptomatic and died of disease In order to simulate the pressure of a large number of isolated patients on the operation of isolation points and the pressure of a large number of confirmed patients on the operation of hospitals, the saturation characteristics of state transfer parameters are considered in the model In the aspect of parameter configuration, the time-varying characteristics of state transition parameters in different stages of epidemic development are analyzed A parameter identification model is established and solved by Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm In addition, the risk indicators of epidemic transmission are established from multiple dimensions to comprehensively assess the risk of epidemic transmission Through the case studies of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in Wuhan and foreign countries (America and Spain), the results show that the calculated results are in better agreement with the official data and reveal the mechanism of epidemic transmission compared with other classical dynamics models © 2021, Editorial Board of Journal of Systems Engineering Society of China All right reserved