Community-level analysis of correlated fish production in fisheries and aquaculture: The case of Japan

Abstract Global aquaculture production is expected to exceed marine capture production by 2030. A comprehensive understanding of the relationship between coastal fisheries and aquaculture production at community level is required for fishery managers to ensure the efficient use of resources and to minimise potential conflicts between resource users. Improving communities’ ability to flexibly adjust the production mix between the two is also crucial to enhance communities’ resilience to external shocks, such as climate change and resource depletion. Based on data from Japan’s Census of Fisheries, a panel data set of 1922 fishing communities show that a decrease in the number of coastal fishing entities within a community is partially offset by an increasing number of aquaculture entities, suggesting that coastal fisheries and aquaculture production are negatively related at community level. The results also show that changes in production mix are not solely determined within the community per se but also depend on the production mix in neighbouring communities.