Modeling the Dynamics of Natural Forest Ecosystems in the Northeast of European Russia under Climate Change and Forest Fires

Abstract: The individual-based EFIMOD simulation model was used for regional-scale assessments of the dynamics of basic characteristics of the carbon and nitrogen balance in the forest ecosystems of north central Russia. Two forest strict nature reserves were chosen as case studies. Data from the National Forest Inventory were used for model initialization. Initial soil data were taken from a soil survey database containing data on soil organic matter and nitrogen content in the organic layer and mineral soil for different forest types and regions of European Russia. Standard meteorological data were used as climatic inputs. Two simulation scenarios (without disturbances and with forest fires) were coupled with 2 climatic ones (actual climate and the scenario of climate change). The main sources of uncertainty were analyzed and the model parameters were evaluated. A Monte Carlo procedure was applied for evaluation of the robustness of coefficients. Simulation results showed that the greatest carbon accumu...