Stochastic Modelling of Electric Vehicle’s Charging Behaviour in Parking Lots

The rapid increase in penetration of electric vehicle (EVs) will turn parking lots (PLs) into a charging stations. PLs associated with workplace/ shopping centre/ homes will be the most convenient spots for EV owners to charge their vehicles. However, EVs are moveable load, and it is challenging to predict its usage pattern, charging/discharging behaviour and availability in the PLs. This work proposes a probabilistic model to estimate the aggregated charging demand and available energy storage capacity of EVs while considering its usage, driving style and travel patterns and battery degradation. The proposed model is based on mathematical formulations that suggest definite improvement with the existing models in terms of accurate estimation of EV charging load and its available energy storage capacity. We concluded that by enabling vehicle to grid, the parking lots equipped with EV chargers would be the key energy resource for the virtual power plant.