A multiple beta wavelet-based locally regularized ultra-orthogonal forward regression algorithm for time-varying system identification with applications to EEG

Time-varying (TV) nonlinear systems widely exist in various fields of engineering and science. Effective identification and modeling of TV systems is a challenging problem due to the nonstationarity and nonlinearity of the associated processes. In this paper, a novel parametric modeling algorithm is proposed to deal with this problem based on a TV nonlinear autoregressive with exogenous input (TV-NARX) model. A new class of multiple beta wavelet (MBW) basis functions is introduced to represent the TV coefficients of the TV-NARX model to enable the tracking of both smooth trends and sharp changes of the system behavior. To produce a parsimonious model structure, a locally regularized ultraorthogonal forward regression (LRUOFR) algorithm aided by the adjustable prediction error sum of squares (APRESS) criterion is investigated for sparse model term selection and parameter estimation. Simulation studies and a real application to EEG data show that the proposed MBW-LRUOFR algorithm can effectively capture the global and local features of nonstationary systems and obtain an optimal model, even for signals contaminated with severe colored noise.