On what scales can GOSAT flux inversions constrain anomalies in terrestrial ecosystems

Abstract. Interannual variations in temperature and precipitation impact the carbon balance of terrestrial ecosystems, leaving an imprint in atmospheric CO 2 . Quantifying the impact of climate anomalies on the net ecosystem exchange (NEE) of terrestrial ecosystems can provide a constraint to evaluate terrestrial biosphere models against, and may provide an emergent constraint on the response of terrestrial ecosystems to climate change. We investigate the spatial scales over which interannual variability in NEE can be constrained using atmospheric CO 2 observations from the Greenhouse Gases Observing Satellite (GOSAT). NEE anomalies are calculated by performing a series of inversion analyses using the GEOS-Chem model to assimilate GOSAT observations. Monthly NEE anomalies are compared to proxies , variables which are associated with anomalies in the terrestrial carbon cycle, and to upscaled NEE estimates from FLUXCOM. Strong agreement is found in the timing of anomalies in the GOSAT flux inversions with soil temperature and FLUXCOM. Strong correlations are obtained ( P 0.05, R > R NINO3.4 ) in the tropics on continental and larger scales, and in the northern extratropics on sub-continental scales during the summer ( R 2 ≥ 0.49). These results, in addition to a series of observing system simulation experiments that were conducted, provide evidence that GOSAT flux inversions can isolate anomalies in NEE on continental and larger scales. However, in both the tropics and northern extratropics, the agreement between the inversions and the proxies/FLUXCOM is sensitive to the flux inversion configuration. Our results suggest that regional scales are likely the minimum scales that can be resolved in the tropics using GOSAT observations, but obtaining robust NEE anomaly estimates on these scales may be difficult.