Agricultural drought projection in Ethiopia from 1981 to 2050: Using coordinated regional climate downscaling experiment climate data for Africa

Abstract Generating scientific evidence on future drought is very crucial for designing adaption strategies ahead of time. In this study, agricultural drought is computed for Ethiopia using bias-corrected Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) Africa climate data considering past and future climate scenarios. Model performance comparison is done among eight CORDEX Africa climate models. Center National de Recherches Meteorologiques-Center Europe’en de Recherche et de Formation Avancee Global Circulation Models (CNRM-CERFACS GCMs) downscaled by RCA4 (Rossby Center Regional Atmospheric Model) regional climate model is selected to compute drought using Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI). The findings of the study revealed that the magnitude, frequency as well as areal extent of drought are anticipated to increase in the future. Specifically, western Gambela and Oromia regions, northern SNNP, southern Oromia, the western part of Tigray and Amhara, and the very eastern part of Afar regions will suffer most from drought in the mid of this century. Drought frequency will be every other year at different magnitude which was two to three times in a decade in the past. In the future, more areas will experience severe and moderate drought than it was before, and this situation will have negative implication on agriculture. In response, the agricultural sector should take tactical, strategic, and adaptive decisions to minimize the effect of drought on productivity and livelihoods.