Modélisation régionale des polluants à courte durée de vie (aérosols, ozone) en Arctique

The Arctic is increasingly open to human activity due to rapid warming, associated with decreased sea ice extent. This warming is due, in part, to the effect of short-lived atmospheric pollutants (aerosols, ozone). As a result, Arctic pollutant emissions should increase in the future, and their impacts might become significant compared to the now predominant source due to pollution transport from the mid-latitudes. In this thesis, regional simulations of the Arctic troposphere are performed with the WRF-Chem model, combined with new emission estimates for oil and gas extraction and shipping in the Arctic. The model is used to analyze two case studies from recent airborne measurement datasets: POLARCAT-France in 2008, ACCESS in 2012. First, I investigate an aerosol transport event from Europe to the Arctic in spring 2008, in order to improve our understanding of this major source of Arctic pollution. Second, I determine the air quality and radiative impacts of shipping emissions in Northern Norway in summer 2012, where most current Arctic shipping occurs. I use these results to validate modeled pollution, and to improve WRF-Chem for Arctic studies. The updated model is used to investigate the current (2012) and future (2050) impacts of Arctic shipping and Arctic gas flaring in terms of air quality and radiative effects. Results show that Arctic flaring emissions are and should remain a strong source of local black carbon aerosols, causing warming, and that Arctic shipping is already a strong source of aerosols and ozone during summer. In 2050, diversion shipping through the Arctic Ocean could become a major source of local surface aerosol and ozone pollution.