Predicting menopausal age with anti-Müllerian hormone: a cross-validation study of two existing models

AbstractObjective This study aimed to cross-validate two comparable Weibull models of prediction of age at natural menopause from two cohorts, the Scheffer, van Rooij, de Vet (SRV) cohort and the Tehran Lipid and Glucose Study (TLGS) cohort. It summarizes advantages and disadvantages of the models and underlines the need for achieving correct time dependency in dynamic variables like anti-Mullerian hormone.Methods Models were fitted in the original datasets and then applied to the cross-validation datasets. The discriminatory capacity of each model was assessed by calculating C-statistics for the models in their own data and in the cross-validation data. Calibration of the models on the cross-validation data was assessed by measuring the slope, intercept and Weibull shape parameter.Results The C-statistic for the SRV model on the SRV data was 0.7 (95% confidence interval (CI) 0.7–0.8) and on the TLGS data it was 0.8 (95% CI 0.8–0.9). For the TLGS model on the TLGS data, it was 0.9 (95% CI 0.8–0.9) and on ...