Characterizing fusion market entry via an agent-based power plant fleet model

Abstract An agent based model characterizing the U.S. power plant fleet was formulated to compare scenarios for fusion energy technology diffusion. The model employs historical data to form distributions for power plant retirements, and simulates construction of new capacity to meet electricity demand on an annual basis. Scenario analysis within this paper explores model sensitivity to 1) the year of market entry for commercial fusion technologies, 2) rate of diffusion, and 3) market capture limit. Results indicate that the first-decade market potential for fusion power plants depends on retirements of other generating resources and finds that near-term availability of fusion technology has limited potential to mitigate fleet-wide emissions in the near term, even at high rates of market capture.