Qualitative Methods for National Security Applications: Archival Research and Contemporary Sources

This paper aims to develop analytic approaches and practical lessons from primary and complementary sources — from historical archives to emergent online media — toward advancing policy-relevant scientific knowledge of conflicts as well as helping leaders overcome the fog of war and make better-informed decisions in complex environments. From Syria to Afghanistan and elsewhere, today’s international security hotspots have a long history as well as fast developing dynamics. Decisions and actions may further shape strategic dispositions for generations to come. How can we systematically learn from the available records and exploit the emergent content of unfolding complex conflicts to draw accurate and meaningful insights that are methodologically sound as well as actionable? This paper outlines a general approach toward addressing this question and shows its application using two example cases: Afghanistan and Syria. Specifically, the paper highlights lessons learned from an ongoing study “Mining Afghan Lessons from the Soviet Era” (MALSE) based on USSR's Politburo archives to inform the U.S. led Coalition (ISAF/NATO) activities in Afghanistan and examines potential applications to other cases, such as the situation in Syria. The goal is to develop rigorous approaches, analytic tools, and data sources for gaining deeper understanding of complex conflicts and applying the knowledge gained to help military and policy leaders improve their consequential decisions under uncertainty.