The Evolution of Energy Market and Energy Usage: An Application of the Distribution Dynamics Analysis

There has been a general consensus that greenhouse gas emission is closely related with energy consumption. This study aims to sharpen understandings on the state of global energy transition by employing the distribution dynamics approach. Three major energy sources were investigated, including coal, oil, and natural gas. A distribution dynamics approach is used to analyze the data of almost all the countries and regions in the world. This study fills an important gap in the literature by providing several important findings. First, many countries would reduce their relative coal and oil consumption in the future but oil would remain to be the most common form of energy source. However, great variability can be observed for the distribution of gas consumption. Second, from the ergodic distribution of the gas market, it can be observed convergence clubs may emerge in the long run as the countries would congregate in certain clusters with similar levels of gas consumption. These findings call for further research and policy planning for the development of gas industry. Third, the distribution dynamics is very different for the four income groups (according to the World Bank), and so it is necessary to take a country’s income level into consideration in formulating energy policies. Fourth, our findings reflect the issue of global inequality amongst the countries as the energy consumption of the poor countries are much lower than the other countries. Fifth, oil is deemed to be the most popular form of energy sources for the upper-middle-income and high-income countries, while coal is not a preferred energy source for the affluent countries, thereby suggesting the need to provide aid to the poor countries for mitigating the use of coal. Finally, gas consumption seems to have a very high variability and the countries can have very different consumption patterns of gas even if they belong to the same income category, implying that country-specific policies should be formulated for the development of the gas industry. Furthermore, it is observed that for the lower-middle-income and upper-middle-income countries, the big consumers of gas tend to increase their gas consumption further.