Determination of suitable thermodynamic indices and prediction of thunderstorm events for Kolkata, India

In this article we have analyzed 10 number of thermodynamic stability indices for the city Kolkata in India for which we have studied the upper air RSRW data of 00 UTC during the pre-monsoon season i.e. March–May of 2016–2018. We have determined the optimal threshold values and associated skill scores for those thermodynamic indices and among those, obtained the suitable indices which are more relevant for predicting thunderstorm events. Finally, we have proposed a new scheme as a tool for predicting thunderstorm in the form of a binary classifier i.e. whether thunderstorm will occur or not in a day. Verification of accuracy has been carried out for the premonsoon of 2020. Comparison of the performance of the proposed scheme with that of latest operational thunderstorm prediction methods in India reveals that the proposed scheme is showing better prediction skill.