Critical Amount of Resource in Containing Catastrophic Epidemics

During an epidemic control, the containment of the disease is usually achieved through increasing public health resource to quickly identify, quarantine and cure the infected population. However, the exact impact of this resource expenditure on the physical spreading dynamics remains unknown. In this work we find that the influence of resource expenditure exhibits extreme critical behaviour, which is the first order phase transition in nature. Specifically, if the amount of invested resource is below a critical value, a significant fraction of the total population will become infected; once it is more than that critical value, the disease outbreak can be effectively eradicated or contained. This finding implies that the government expenditure on infectious disease control needs to meet a certain critical threshold to be of any effectiveness. Otherwise, the outbreak could be catastrophic. We have validated our theoretical results on one real contact network and three typical social networks, with all of them exhibiting abrupt catastrophic jumps related to a critical resource amount. Contrary to common sense, we find that such a catastrophic jump is more pronounced in the less contagious diseases, yet such diseases are usually among the most fatal ones. Moreover, we observe a non-trivial resource amount requirement, that even with a single node as infection source, public resource needs to meet a significant amount to ensure epidemic containment. Our new findings have important implications on public health policies regarding the devoted public resource into epidemic disease control.