30-Year Trends in Graft Survival After Heart Transplant: Modeled Analyses of a Transplant Registry.

Abstract Background Heart failure is an epidemic in the United States, and transplantation remains the most definitive therapy. We describe multi-decade trends in post-transplant graft survival, adjusted for concurrent changes in the population, over the 30 years antecedent to the most recent heart allocation policy change. Methods Scientific Registry of Transplant Recipients data were used to identify all primary adult heart recipients 1989 through 2017. We described temporal changes in population characteristics (recipient/donor demographics and comorbidities, pretransplant interventions, clinical transplant measures, and providers). The primary outcome was graft survival, defined as freedom from all-cause death and graft failure, within 6 months post-transplant. Modified Poisson logistic regression estimated relative changes in risk of outcomes compared to 1989, with and without adjustment for changing population characteristics. We identified risk factors, quantified by associated risk ratios. Results Among 56,488 primary adult heart recipients, we observed 5,529 (9.8%) all-cause deaths and 1,933 (3.4%) graft failure events within 6 months post-transplant. Prevalence of known recipient risk factors increased over time. Unadjusted modeling demonstrated a significant 30-year improvement in graft survival, averaging 2.6% (95%CI:2.4-2.9%) per year (p-for-trend Conclusions Short-term graft survival after heart transplantation has improved significantly leading up to the 2018 heart allocation policy change, despite concurrent increase in prevalence of higher risk population characteristics.